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登革热建模与仿真工具:登革热时空动态的建模与仿真工具

DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics.

作者信息

de Lima Tiago França Melo, Lana Raquel Martins, de Senna Carneiro Tiago Garcia, Codeço Cláudia Torres, Machado Gabriel Souza, Ferreira Lucas Saraiva, de Castro Medeiros Líliam César, Davis Junior Clodoveu Augusto

机构信息

Departamento de Computação e Sistemas (DECSI), Instituto de Ciências Exatas e Aplicadas (ICEA), Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (UFOP) - Campus João Monlevade, João Monlevade, MG 35931-008, Brasil.

Programa Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sérgio Arouca (ENSP), Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21045-900, Brasil.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Sep 15;13(9):920. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13090920.

Abstract

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector's dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability.

摘要

登革热的预防和控制对许多国家来说都是巨大的公共卫生挑战,特别是自2015年以来,因为人们观察到其他虫媒病毒与登革热病毒之间存在显著相互作用。研究界已经提出并讨论了不同的方法和方法论。一种广泛使用的重要工具是建模与模拟,它有助于我们了解疫情动态,并创建各种情景以支持规划和决策过程。出于这个目的,我们提出并开发了DengueME,这是一个用于模拟登革热疾病及其媒介动态的协作式开源平台。它支持基于地理信息系统(GIS)数据库实现的 compartmental模型和基于个体的模型,这些模型能够呈现埃及伊蚊种群动态、人口统计学、人口流动、城市景观以及由人与蚊子接触介导的登革热传播情况。我们开发了一个用户友好的图形界面以方便模型配置和数据输入,并开发了一个模型库以支持教学活动。DengueME已应用于案例研究并由专家进行了评估。未来的工作将进行其他改进,以增强其可扩展性和可用性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/67fb/5036753/520627ada954/ijerph-13-00920-g012.jpg

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