Yu Yi, Xiao Gaoxi, Zhou Jie, Wang Yubo, Wang Zhen, Kurths Jürgen, Schellnhuber Hans Joachim
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798.
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798; Complexity Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Oct 18;113(42):11726-11731. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612094113. Epub 2016 Oct 3.
Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the "peculiar" dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.
从兽群到人类社会,复杂系统有时会急剧崩溃。尽管系统的增长和演化已得到广泛研究,但我们对系统如何崩溃的理解仍然有限。一些看似注定要失败的系统却能长期存续,而另一些看似规模太大或实力太强而不会失败的系统却迅速崩溃,这仍然相当令人费解。在本文中,我们提出了一个基于网络的系统动力学模型,其中基于各自系统结构中可获取的局部信息的个体行动可能导致上述系统崩溃的“奇特”动态。我们在合成网络和现实网络上进行了广泛的模拟,进一步揭示了导致最终崩溃的有趣系统演化。本文还讨论了所提出模型的应用和可能的扩展。