School of Health Systems and Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa.
Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Box 100, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Oct 29;17(21):7963. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17217963.
In 2015, stricter regulations to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions and particulate air pollution from shipping were implemented in the Baltic Sea. We investigated the effects on population exposure to particles <2.5 µm (PM) from shipping and estimated related morbidity and mortality in Sweden's 21 counties at different spatial resolutions. We used a regional model to estimate exposure in Sweden and a city-scale model for Gothenburg. Effects of PM exposure on total mortality, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were estimated using exposure-response functions from the literature and combining them into disability-adjusted life years (DALYS). PM exposure from shipping in Gothenburg decreased by 7% (1.6 to 1.5 µg/m) using the city-scale model, and 35% (0.5 to 0.3 µg/m) using the regional model. Different population resolutions had no effects on population exposures. In the city-scale model, annual premature deaths due to shipping PM dropped from 97 with the high-sulfur scenario to 90 in the low-sulfur scenario, and in the regional model from 32 to 21. In Sweden, DALYs lost due to PM from Baltic Sea shipping decreased from approximately 5700 to 4200. In conclusion, sulfur emission restrictions for shipping had positive effects on health, but the model resolution affects estimations.
2015 年，波罗的海实施了更严格的规定，以减少航运产生的二氧化硫排放和细颗粒物空气污染。我们研究了这些规定对瑞典 21 个郡人群暴露于航运产生的细颗粒物（PM）<2.5µm 的影响，并在不同的空间分辨率下估计了相关发病率和死亡率。我们使用区域模型估算瑞典的暴露情况，并使用哥德堡的城市规模模型进行估算。使用文献中的暴露-反应函数并将其组合成残疾调整生命年（DALY），来估算 PM 暴露对总死亡率、缺血性心脏病和中风的影响。使用城市规模模型，哥德堡的航运 PM 暴露减少了 7%（从 1.6µg/m 降至 1.5µg/m），而使用区域模型则减少了 35%（从 0.5µg/m 降至 0.3µg/m）。不同的人口分辨率对人群暴露没有影响。在城市规模模型中，由于航运 PM 导致的每年过早死亡人数从高硫情景下的 97 人减少到低硫情景下的 90 人，而在区域模型中则从 32 人减少到 21 人。在瑞典，由于波罗的海航运产生的 PM 而导致的 DALY 损失从大约 5700 人减少到 4200 人。总之，对航运的硫排放限制对健康产生了积极影响，但模型分辨率会影响估算结果。
