Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA.
Nat Commun. 2016 Nov 30;7:13676. doi: 10.1038/ncomms13676.
Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model-having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models-we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.
全球平均气温在 1998 年至 2015 年间的上升速度（0.1 K 十年）较耦合模式比较计划 5（CMIP5）模型预测的集合平均值（强迫）变暖速度（0.2 K 十年）要慢。在这里，我们研究了这种较慢的变暖速度持续十年或更长时间的可能性。如果最近的低端估计表明，CMIP5 模型对瞬态气候响应的估计过高了一倍，那么这种较慢的变暖速度可能会持续。或者，由于强多年代际内部变率冷却，即使使用 CMIP5 模型的变暖速度，较慢的变暖速度仍可能持续。将 CMIP5 集合变暖速度与单个气候模型的内部变率事件相结合——该模型在 CMIP5 模型中具有最强的多年代际变率——我们估计，由于内部变率冷却，1998 年开始的变暖减缓（<0.1 K 十年趋势）可能会持续到 2020 年、2025 年或 2030 年，概率分别为 16%、11%和 6%。
