Tucker Ross, Santos-Concejero Jordan
Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2017 Sep;12(8):1017-1022. doi: 10.1123/ijspp.2016-0634. Epub 2016 Dec 14.
The aim of the current study was to analyze men's and women's world records across the full range of running disciplines to contextualize the recent debate about the possibility of a sub-2-h marathon. The average male-female gap is currently 11.2% ± 1.0% for all running events. However, reducing the marathon time to below 2 h would produce a performance 12.9% (+1.7 SD) faster than the women's marathon record. This gap would be greater than all current world-record differences and would also require a reversal of medium- and long-term historical trends in the men's and women's record differences. We therefore conclude that based on historical trends and known differences between men's and women's performances, the current women's world record is not yet the equivalent of a sub-2-h marathon and, therefore, that an imminent sub-2-h marathon is implausible.
本研究的目的是分析所有跑步项目的男子和女子世界纪录，以便将近期关于马拉松跑进2小时可能性的争论置于具体情境中。目前，所有跑步项目的男女平均差距为11.2%±1.0%。然而，将马拉松时间缩短至2小时以下将产生比女子马拉松纪录快12.9%（+1.7标准差）的成绩。这一差距将大于目前所有世界纪录的差异，并且还需要扭转男女纪录差异的中长期历史趋势。因此，我们得出结论，基于历史趋势以及男女成绩的已知差异，目前的女子世界纪录还不等同于马拉松跑进2小时的成绩，所以，马拉松即将跑进2小时是不太可能的。
