Cheuvront Samuel N, Carter Robert, Deruisseau Keith C, Moffatt Robert J
US Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, Natick, MA 01760-5007, USA.
Sports Med. 2005;35(12):1017-24. doi: 10.2165/00007256-200535120-00002.
More than a decade ago it was reported in the journal Nature that the slope of improvement in the men's and women's running records, extrapolated from mean running velocity plotted against historical time, would eventually result in a performance intersection of the sexes across a variety of running distances. The first of these intersections was to occur for 42 000 m before the 21st century. Most of the error in this prediction is probably explained by the linear mathematical treatment and extrapolation of limited performance data, since including world record-setting running performances for women before and after 1985 results in a non-linear data fit. The reality of early, disproportionate improvements in women's running that gave the appearance of an impending convergence with men is best explained by an historical social sports bias. Women's times have now reached a plateau similar to that observed for men at comparative performance milestones in the marathon. Sex differences at distances from 100 to 10 000 m show similar trends. The remaining sex gaps in performance appear biological in origin. Success in distance running and sprinting is determined largely by aerobic capacity and muscular strength, respectively. Because men possess a larger aerobic capacity and greater muscular strength, the gap in running performances between men and women is unlikely to narrow naturally.
十多年前，《自然》杂志报道称，根据平均跑步速度与历史时间绘制的图表推断，男子和女子跑步记录的提升斜率最终将导致在各种跑步距离上男女成绩的交叉点。其中第一个交叉点将在21世纪之前出现在42000米项目中。该预测中的大部分误差可能是由于对有限成绩数据进行线性数学处理和外推造成的，因为纳入1985年前后女性创造世界纪录的跑步成绩会得到非线性数据拟合。女性跑步成绩早期不成比例的快速提升，给人一种即将与男性趋同的表象，这一现象的现实情况最好用历史上的社会体育偏见来解释。现在，女性的成绩已经达到了一个平稳期，类似于在马拉松比赛中男性在相应成绩里程碑时所观察到的情况。100米到10000米各距离的性别差异呈现出类似趋势。成绩上剩余的性别差距似乎源于生物学因素。长跑和短跑的成功很大程度上分别取决于有氧能力和肌肉力量。由于男性拥有更大的有氧能力和更强的肌肉力量，男女之间的跑步成绩差距不太可能自然缩小。
