Sousa Caio Victor, Sales Marcelo Magalhães, Nikolaidis Pantelis Theodoros, Rosemann Thomas, Knechtle Beat
Graduate Program in Physical Education, Universidade Católica de Brasília, Brasília, Brazil.
Physical Education Department, Universidade Estadual de Goiás, Quirinópolis, Goiás, Brazil.
Open Access J Sports Med. 2018 Jul 31;9:139-145. doi: 10.2147/OAJSM.S169758. eCollection 2018.
The sub-2-hour marathon is a new barrier in endurance running performance, and it has been widely debated in the scientific community. In this review we present a mathematical model to estimate the possible year when a male could break through the sub-2-hour barrier, and also an estimation of when a female could break Paula Radcliffe's marathon running record. Further, we present several aspects (ie, physiology, nationality, age, biomechanics, pacing, and drafting) that are associated with marathon running performance in elite runners and, finally, the possible characteristics of the male to break the sub-2-hour barrier. In summary, with the results of the developed equations, it is possible that a male athlete can break through the sub-2-hour barrier in the next decade (with Nike Breaking2 performance 1920-2018 [NBP]: =0.0417-14.18 +3,128; year of 2026; without NBP 1920-2018: =0.045-15.12 +3,194; year of 2027). This marathoner will possibly have a maximal oxygen uptake >85 mL∙kg∙min and should perform the race at a pacing higher than 85% of maximal oxygen uptake. In addition, this runner should pay more attention to strength training, endurance strength, speed training, and focus on running training at an intensity above the anaerobic threshold. Most likely, this runner originates from East Africa (especially from Ethiopia) and will have an age of ~27 years. For the females, there is poor evidence regarding the physiological profile of the female marathoner who will break Radcliffe's record, but the available literature suggests that it will not happen any time soon.
两小时内跑完马拉松是耐力跑成绩的一个新壁垒，科学界对此展开了广泛讨论。在本综述中，我们提出一个数学模型来估算男性突破两小时壁垒可能的年份，以及女性打破葆拉·拉德克利夫马拉松跑记录的时间。此外，我们还阐述了与精英跑者马拉松成绩相关的几个方面（即生理学、国籍、年龄、生物力学、配速和跟随跑），最后介绍了有可能突破两小时壁垒的男性的可能特征。总之，根据所建立方程的结果，男性运动员有可能在未来十年内突破两小时壁垒（使用耐克Breaking2成绩1920 - 2018年[NBP]：= 0.0417 - 14.18 + 3128；2026年；不使用1920 - 2018年的NBP：= 0.045 - 15.12 + 3194；2027年）。这位马拉松选手最大摄氧量可能大于85毫升·千克·分钟，比赛配速应高于最大摄氧量的85%。此外，这位跑者应更加注重力量训练、耐力力量、速度训练，并专注于无氧阈强度以上的跑步训练。很有可能这位跑者来自东非（尤其是埃塞俄比亚），年龄约27岁。对于女性而言，关于打破拉德克利夫记录的女性马拉松选手的生理特征，证据不足，但现有文献表明这不会很快发生。
