Cullen Laury, Stanton Jessica C, Lima Fernando, Uezu Alexandre, Perilli Miriam L L, Akçakaya H Reşit
IPÊ -Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil.
Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2016 Dec 14;11(12):e0167372. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0167372. eCollection 2016.
Jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in the Upper Paraná River, in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest region, live in a landscape that includes highly fragmented areas as well as relatively intact ones. We developed a model of jaguar habitat suitability in this region, and based on this habitat model, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation model of the jaguar populations in this area to analyze their viability, the potential impact of road mortality on the populations' persistence, and the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation. In more highly fragmented populations, density of jaguars per unit area is lower and density of roads per jaguar is higher. The populations with the most fragmented habitat were predicted to have much lower persistence in the next 100 years when the model included no dispersal, indicating that the persistence of these populations are dependent to a large extent on dispersal from other populations. This, in turn, indicates that the interaction between road mortality and habitat fragmentation may lead to source-sink dynamics, whereby populations with highly fragmented habitat are maintained only by dispersal from populations with less fragmented habitat. This study demonstrates the utility of linking habitat and demographic models in assessing impacts on species living in fragmented landscapes.
在巴西大西洋森林地区的巴拉那河上游，美洲豹（Panthera onca）种群生活在一个既包括高度破碎化区域又包括相对完整区域的景观中。我们建立了该地区美洲豹栖息地适宜性模型，并基于此栖息地模型，构建了该地区美洲豹种群的空间结构化集合种群模型，以分析它们的生存能力、道路死亡率对种群持续性的潜在影响，以及道路死亡率与栖息地破碎化之间的相互作用。在破碎化程度更高的种群中，每单位面积的美洲豹密度较低，而每只美洲豹对应的道路密度较高。当模型不考虑扩散时，预测栖息地破碎化程度最高的种群在未来100年的持续性会低得多，这表明这些种群的持续性在很大程度上依赖于来自其他种群的扩散。反过来，这表明道路死亡率与栖息地破碎化之间的相互作用可能导致源 - 汇动态，即栖息地高度破碎化的种群仅通过来自栖息地破碎化程度较低种群的扩散来维持。这项研究证明了将栖息地模型和种群统计学模型相结合在评估对生活在破碎化景观中的物种的影响方面的实用性。
