Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, 647 Contees Wharf Road, Edgewater, MD 21037, United States.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 15;580:1470-1474. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.12.125. Epub 2016 Dec 28.
As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004-2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015-2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42millionm), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21 century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species.
随着美国天然气供应过剩的增加，与国外买家建立新贸易伙伴关系的前景也越来越大，这一过程对全球船舶运输和压载水交付产生重大影响。自 2004-2007 年美国液化天然气 (LNG) 年进口量达到峰值以来，美国正迅速从 LNG 的净进口国转变为净出口国。我们结合多个数据集，利用船舶国内 LNG 出口的现有预测情景，估算了 2015 年至 2040 年与船舶压载水相关的通量变化。我们对当前市场（2015 年）情景的分析预测，到 2040 年，与 LNG 相关的压载水排放到美国的数量将增加约 90 倍（4200 万立方米），如果油价高企，这一数字可能会更大。我们还描述了与贸易方向相关的地理连通性变化。这些发现强调了 21 世纪全球能源市场如何极大地改变了外来物种通过海上引入和入侵的机会。
