Risk Anal. 2017 Nov;37(11):2053-2065. doi: 10.1111/risa.12759. Epub 2017 Jan 17.
The concept of emergence in risk management can be seen as a revealing symptom of the increasing need for organizations to update their portfolio of risks and opportunities in a rapidly changing and highly competitive environment. Accordingly, the concept of emerging risks has been widely discussed in both scientific and business communities, with, however, a lack of agreement as to whether we should distinguish these risks from others and, if so, what should be the adopted approach for their governance. After reviewing a large set of definitions and conceptions of emerging risks, this article aims at exploring the existence of distinctive features allowing the characterization of a risk as emerging or not. First, we will demonstrate that the features used in the various definitions are ineffective to achieve this distinction. Furthermore, we will argue that all events and consequences associated with risks are or have been states of nature that emerged from complex interactions involving combinations of hazardous activities and stakes. Accordingly, emerging risks are no longer a specific category of risks; they are rather an early step in every risk life cycle that deserves specific governance approaches.
在风险管理中，涌现的概念可以被视为一种明显的症状，表明组织在快速变化和竞争激烈的环境中越来越需要更新其风险和机会组合。因此，涌现风险的概念在科学界和商业界都得到了广泛的讨论，然而，对于我们是否应该将这些风险与其他风险区分开来，以及如果要区分，应该采用什么方法来治理这些风险，尚未达成共识。在回顾了大量涌现风险的定义和概念之后，本文旨在探讨是否存在可以将风险定义为涌现或非涌现的独特特征。首先，我们将证明各种定义中使用的特征无法实现这种区分。此外，我们还将认为，与风险相关的所有事件和后果都是或曾经是从涉及危险活动和利益组合的复杂相互作用中涌现出来的自然状态。因此，涌现风险不再是一种特定类别的风险；它们更像是每个风险生命周期中的早期阶段，值得采用特定的治理方法。
