Coral Reef Alliance, 1330 Broadway, Oakland, CA 94612, USA.
Coral Reef Alliance, 1330 Broadway, Oakland, CA 94612, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2017 Mar;32(3):167-173. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2016.12.007. Epub 2017 Jan 23.
Many conservation strategies identify a narrow subset of genotypes, species, or geographic locations that are predicted to be favored under different scenarios of future climate change. However, a focus on predicted winners, which might not prove to be correct, risks undervaluing the balance of biological diversity from which climate-change winners could otherwise emerge. Drawing on ecology, evolutionary biology, and portfolio theory, we propose a conservation approach designed to promote adaptation that is less dependent on uncertain predictions about the identity of winners and losers. By designing actions to facilitate numerous opportunities for selection across biological and environmental conditions, we can allow nature to pick the winners and increase the probability that ecosystems continue to provide services to humans and other species.
许多保护策略确定了一个狭窄的基因型、物种或地理位置子集，这些子集预计在未来气候变化的不同情景下会受到青睐。然而，关注那些可能并不正确的预测赢家，可能会低估生物多样性的平衡，而这种平衡本来可以使气候变化的赢家出现。我们借鉴生态学、进化生物学和投资组合理论，提出了一种旨在促进适应的保护方法，这种方法不太依赖于关于赢家和输家身份的不确定预测。通过设计行动来促进在生物和环境条件下的大量选择机会，我们可以让大自然选择赢家，并增加生态系统继续为人类和其他物种提供服务的可能性。
