Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Sci Adv. 2016 Nov 30;2(11):e1601542. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1601542. eCollection 2016 Nov.
In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely felt ≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.
针对俄克拉荷马州中北部地区大量因注水引发的地震，监管机构最近要求减少在地震活跃地区注入的盐水体积 40%。我们提出了一个经过校准的统计模型，该模型预测，到 2016 年底，受影响地区广泛感受到的 ≥3 级地震以及潜在破坏性较大地震的概率应显著降低，并在几年内接近历史水平。与 2015 年末和 2016 年在俄克拉荷马州中北部费尔维尤、切罗基和波尼地区发生的相对较大震级地震相关的余震序列将延迟这些地区地震活动减少的速度。
