Beyea Jan
Consulting in the Public Interest, Lambertville, NJ 08530, United States.
Environ Res. 2017 Apr;154:362-379. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.01.032. Epub 2017 Feb 4.
There are both statistically valid and invalid reasons why scientists with differing default hypotheses can disagree in high-profile situations. Examples can be found in recent correspondence in this journal, which may offer lessons for resolving challenges to mainstream science, particularly when adherents of a minority view attempt to elevate the status of outlier studies and/or claim that self-interest explains the acceptance of the dominant theory. Edward J. Calabrese and I have been debating the historical origins of the linear no-threshold theory (LNT) of carcinogenesis and its use in the regulation of ionizing radiation. Professor Calabrese, a supporter of hormesis, has charged a committee of scientists with misconduct in their preparation of a 1956 report on the genetic effects of atomic radiation. Specifically he argues that the report mischaracterized the LNT research record and suppressed calculations of some committee members. After reviewing the available scientific literature, I found that the contemporaneous evidence overwhelmingly favored a (genetics) LNT and that no calculations were suppressed. Calabrese's claims about the scientific record do not hold up primarily because of lack of attention to statistical analysis. Ironically, outlier studies were more likely to favor supra-linearity, not sub-linearity. Finally, the claim of investigator bias, which underlies Calabrese's accusations about key studies, is based on misreading of text. Attention to ethics charges, early on, may help seed a counter narrative explaining the community's adoption of a default hypothesis and may help focus attention on valid evidence and any real weaknesses in the dominant paradigm.
在备受瞩目的情况下,持有不同默认假设的科学家产生分歧,其原因既有统计学上合理的,也有不合理的。在本期刊最近的通信中可以找到相关例子,这些例子可能为解决对主流科学的挑战提供经验教训,特别是当少数派观点的支持者试图提升异常研究的地位和/或声称自身利益解释了主流理论被接受的原因时。我和爱德华·J·卡拉布雷斯一直在就致癌作用的线性无阈值理论(LNT)的历史起源及其在电离辐射监管中的应用展开辩论。卡拉布雷斯教授是兴奋效应的支持者,他指控一个科学家委员会在编写1956年关于原子辐射遗传效应的报告时存在不当行为。具体而言,他认为该报告错误描述了LNT的研究记录,并压制了一些委员会成员的计算结果。在查阅了现有的科学文献后,我发现当时的证据压倒性地支持(遗传学)LNT,并且没有计算结果被压制。卡拉布雷斯关于科学记录的说法站不住脚,主要是因为他没有关注统计分析。具有讽刺意味的是,异常研究更倾向于超线性,而非亚线性。最后,卡拉布雷斯对关键研究的指控所基于的研究者偏见的说法,是基于对文本的误读。尽早关注伦理指控,可能有助于催生一种反叙事,解释科学界采用默认假设的原因,并可能有助于将注意力集中在有效证据和主流范式中任何真正的弱点上。