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讣告:LNT 享年 89 岁,一生备受瞩目。

Obituary notice: LNT dead at 89 years, a life in the spotlight.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Morrill I, N344, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA.

出版信息

Environ Res. 2017 May;155:276-278. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.02.031. Epub 2017 Mar 10.

Abstract

Considerable recent findings have revealed that the linear dose response for cancer risk assessment has not only outlived its utility in predicting risk but is based on a flawed scientific foundation. The present article characterizes this demise of a key concept of environmental risk assessment, in the framework of a figurative obituary of a long-lived concept that has poorly served society. This obituary is intended to illustrate an integrated mix of poignant and improper historical judgments that led to both the acceptance and ultimately the demise of this once intellectually facile and nearly universally accepted concept.

摘要

最近有大量发现表明,线性剂量反应模型在癌症风险评估中的应用不仅已经失去了预测风险的作用,而且其建立在有缺陷的科学基础上。本文以一个长期存在的概念的形象讣告为框架,描述了环境风险评估中这一关键概念的消亡,这个概念长期以来服务不佳,但却一直存在。本文旨在说明导致这一曾经简单易懂且几乎普遍被接受的概念被接受和最终消亡的一系列令人痛心和不当的历史判断。

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