Jennings Julia A, Gray Clark L
Department of Anthropology, University at Albany, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Ave., 237 Arts and Sciences, Albany, NY 12222.
Department of Geography, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, Campus Box 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.
Popul Environ. 2017 Mar;38(3):242-260. doi: 10.1007/s11111-016-0266-7. Epub 2017 Jan 20.
Environmental factors such as climate variability can place significant constraints on demographic behavior in a range of settings. However, few studies investigate the relationships between demography and climate in historical contexts. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate and economic data from 1871-1937, we examine the effects of climate variability on marriage. This analysis reveals that marriage increases with negative environmental conditions such as cold temperatures, riverine flooding, and high rye prices. These findings are not consistent with a Malthusian narrative of marriage behavior, or with the expectation that environmental constraints were stronger in the historical past.
气候变率等环境因素会在一系列环境中对人口行为施加重大限制。然而，很少有研究在历史背景下探究人口统计学与气候之间的关系。利用来自荷兰历史样本（HSN）的纵向个体层面人口数据以及1871年至1937年的气候和经济数据，我们研究了气候变率对婚姻的影响。该分析表明，婚姻会随着寒冷气温、河流洪水和黑麦价格高等负面环境条件而增加。这些发现与马尔萨斯式的婚姻行为叙述不一致，也与过去历史时期环境限制更强的预期不符。
