Jennings Julia A, Gray Clark L
Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Saunders Hall, CB# 3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.
Popul Environ. 2015 Mar 1;36(3):255-278. doi: 10.1007/s11111-014-0218-z.
Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century.
人口迁移常被视为气候变化和气候变率可能产生的社会后果，而且人们通常认为，在过去经济欠发达、市场更本地化的情况下，这些影响会更强。然而，很少有研究利用历史数据直接检验气候与迁移之间的关系。此外，近期将人口统计数据与气候数据联系起来的研究结果与传统的流离失所反应说法并不一致。我们使用来自荷兰历史样本（HSN）的纵向个体层面人口统计数据以及同一时期的气候数据，运用事件史模型来研究气候变率对迁移的影响。仅后期某些社会群体的国内迁移与负面气候条件有关，而且观察到的影响的强度和方向会随时间变化。国际迁移随着极端降雨而减少，这表明当代人口中观察到的气候与迁移之间的复杂关系可追溯到19世纪。
