Department of Building Science, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Department of Building Science, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Indoor Air Quality Evaluation and Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Environ Pollut. 2017 Jun;225:338-345. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.059. Epub 2017 Mar 8.
Radical measures for controlling ambient air pollution sources were employed by the Chinese government during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in 2014, providing a unique case to evaluate the health effect benefits from such measures. To examine the cancer risk reduction from the source control measures during the APEC meeting, we estimated the reduction in population exposure to PM and PAHs and the reduction in PAHs-associated cancer risk if the control measures were sustained over time. We determined the population exposure to PM and PM-bound PAHs for the 21.52 million Beijing residents using a Land Use Regression model to determine the spatial distribution of PM and a Monte Carlo approach to revise indoor/outdoor infiltration factor and time activity patterns. Into the model and approach, we incorporated the spatial variance and indoor/outdoor differences in the PM and PM-bound PAHs concentrations, based on measurements. We then estimated lung cancer risk using the population attributable fraction (PAF), assuming the control measures were sustained over time. The mean PM exposure concentration decreased from 37.5 μg/m3 (CI:17.1-74.9 μg/m3) to 24.0 μg/m3 (CI:10.2-47.7 μg/m3), whereas the mean PM-bound equivalent benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) exposure concentration decreased from 7.1 ng/m (CI:3.3-14.2 ng/m) to 4.2 ng/m (CI:1.8-7.7 ng/m), resulting in a reduction in the lung cancer PAF from 0.75% to 0.45%, if the measures were sustained over time.
中国政府在 2014 年亚太经合组织（APEC）会议期间采取了激进的措施来控制大气污染源，为评估此类措施带来的健康效益提供了一个独特的案例。为了研究 APEC 会议期间污染源控制措施对癌症风险的降低作用，我们估计了在控制措施持续实施的情况下，人群对 PM 和多环芳烃（PAHs）的暴露量以及 PAHs 相关癌症风险的降低量。我们利用土地利用回归模型确定了 2152 万北京居民的 PM 和 PM 结合型 PAHs 暴露量，该模型用于确定 PM 的空间分布，而蒙特卡罗方法则用于修正室内/外渗透因子和时间活动模式。我们将模型和方法纳入了 PM 和 PM 结合型 PAHs 浓度的空间方差和室内/外差异，这些差异基于测量结果。然后，我们假设控制措施持续实施，利用人群归因分数（PAF）来估计肺癌风险。结果显示，PM 的平均暴露浓度从 37.5μg/m3（CI：17.1-74.9μg/m3）降至 24.0μg/m3（CI：10.2-47.7μg/m3），而 PM 结合型等效苯并[a]芘（BaP）的平均暴露浓度从 7.1ng/m（CI：3.3-14.2ng/m）降至 4.2ng/m（CI：1.8-7.7ng/m），如果控制措施持续实施，肺癌 PAF 将从 0.75%降至 0.45%。
