Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety and Emergency Prevention and Control Technology of Higher Education Institutions in Jiangsu Province, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, 101 Longmian Ave. Nanjing, Nanjing, 211166, China.
Department of Endocrinology, The First People's Hospital of Yancheng and Yancheng Clinical College of Xuzhou Medical University, Yancheng, 224001, China.
BMC Public Health. 2024 Nov 6;24(1):3069. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20542-5.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, non-therapeutic interventions (NPIs), such as traffic restrictions, work stoppages, and school suspensions, have led to a sharp decline in the concentration of air pollutants in the epidemic sites. However, few studies focused on the impact of air pollutant changes on the risk of nonaccidental death.
We selected Yancheng City, China, as the study site and applied a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) based on the quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the impact of atmospheric pollutants exposure on the nonaccidental death of local residents. The time span of this study was set from January 1, 2013, to December 21, 2022, that is, before and after the outbreak of COVID-19.
The concentration of some air pollutants has greatly varied after the outbreak of COVID-19, with a significant decline for PM (- 43.4%), PM (- 38.5%), SO (- 62.9%), and NO (- 22.6%), but an increase for O (+ 4.3%). Comparative analysis showed that PM contributed to an increased risk of nonaccidental death after the outbreak of COVID-19. With an increase in PM by 10 µg/m³, the excess relative risks (ER) of nonaccidental death of residents increased by 1.01% (95%CI: 0.19%,1.84%). The stratified analysis revealed that air pollutants impacted nonaccidental deaths in both men and women before the outbreak of COVID-19. After the outbreak of COVID-19, PM had a significant effect on male nonaccidental deaths. The concentrations of PM, PM, and SO increased by 10 µg/m³, the ER of PM, PM, and SO on female nonaccidental death increased by 1.52% (0.38%,2.67%), 0.58% (0.02%,1.13%), and 15.09% (5.73%,25.28%), respectively. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, five air pollutants had an impact on the death of residents from cardiovascular disease (CVD). After the outbreak of COVID-19, only PM significantly affected the death risk of CVD. In addition, we discovered that PM, PM, and SO significantly impacted the risk of death due to respiratory diseases before and after the outbreak of COVID-19.
Air pollutants have different effects on nonaccidental deaths before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. A decrease in air pollutant concentration due to the NPIs for COVID-19 had a significant effect on the reduction of the risk of nonaccidental death.
在 COVID-19 大流行期间，非治疗性干预措施（NPIs），如交通限制、停工和学校停课，导致疫情地区空气中污染物浓度急剧下降。然而，很少有研究关注空气污染物变化对非意外死亡风险的影响。
我们选择中国盐城市作为研究地点，并应用基于准泊松分布的广义加性模型（GAM）来评估大气污染物暴露对当地居民非意外死亡的影响。本研究的时间跨度为 2013 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 12 月 21 日，即 COVID-19 爆发前后。
COVID-19 爆发后，一些空气污染物的浓度发生了很大变化，PM（-43.4%）、PM（-38.5%）、SO（-62.9%）和 NO（-22.6%）显著下降，但 O（+4.3%）上升。对比分析表明，PM 对 COVID-19 爆发后的非意外死亡风险有增加作用。PM 增加 10μg/m³时，居民非意外死亡的超额相对风险（ER）增加 1.01%（95%CI：0.19%，1.84%）。分层分析表明，空气污染物在 COVID-19 爆发前对男女非意外死亡均有影响。COVID-19 爆发后，PM 对男性非意外死亡有显著影响。PM、PM 和 SO 浓度分别增加 10μg/m³时，PM、PM 和 SO 对女性非意外死亡的 ER 分别增加 1.52%（0.38%，2.67%）、0.58%（0.02%，1.13%）和 15.09%（5.73%，25.28%）。COVID-19 爆发前，有五种空气污染物对心血管疾病（CVD）居民的死亡有影响。COVID-19 爆发后，只有 PM 显著影响 CVD 的死亡风险。此外，我们发现 PM、PM 和 SO 在 COVID-19 爆发前后均显著影响呼吸疾病死亡风险。
空气污染物对 COVID-19 爆发前后的非意外死亡有不同的影响。由于 COVID-19 的 NPIs 导致空气污染物浓度降低，对非意外死亡风险的降低有显著影响。
