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基于逻辑回归的人格、驾驶行为和精神障碍因素作为道路交通事故的预测指标

Personality, Driving Behavior and Mental Disorders Factors as Predictors of Road Traffic Accidents Based on Logistic Regression.

作者信息

Alavi Seyyed Salman, Mohammadi Mohammad Reza, Souri Hamid, Mohammadi Kalhori Soroush, Jannatifard Fereshteh, Sepahbodi Ghazal

机构信息

Psychiatry and Psychology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Iran J Med Sci. 2017 Jan;42(1):24-31.

PMID:28293047
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5337762/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of variables such as personality traits, driving behavior and mental illness on road traffic accidents among the drivers with accidents and those without road crash.

METHODS

In this cohort study, 800 bus and truck drivers were recruited. Participants were selected among drivers who referred to Imam Sajjad Hospital (Tehran, Iran) during 2013-2015. The Manchester driving behavior questionnaire (MDBQ), big five personality test (NEO personality inventory) and semi-structured interview (schizophrenia and affective disorders scale) were used. After two years, we surveyed all accidents due to human factors that involved the recruited drivers. The data were analyzed using the SPSS software by performing the descriptive statistics, t-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis methods. P values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In terms of controlling the effective and demographic variables, the findings revealed significant differences between the two groups of drivers that were and were not involved in road accidents. In addition, it was found that depression and anxiety could increase the odds ratio (OR) of road accidents by 2.4- and 2.7-folds, respectively (P=0.04, P=0.004). It is noteworthy to mention that neuroticism alone can increase the odds of road accidents by 1.1-fold (P=0.009), but other personality factors did not have a significant effect on the equation.

CONCLUSION

The results revealed that some mental disorders affect the incidence of road collisions. Considering the importance and sensitivity of driving behavior, it is necessary to evaluate multiple psychological factors influencing drivers before and after receiving or renewing their driver's license.

摘要

背景

本研究旨在评估人格特质、驾驶行为和精神疾病等变量对发生过事故的驾驶员和未发生过道路碰撞事故的驾驶员交通事故的影响。

方法

在这项队列研究中,招募了800名公交车和卡车司机。参与者是从2013年至2015年期间前往伊玛目萨贾德医院(伊朗德黑兰)就诊的司机中挑选出来的。使用了曼彻斯特驾驶行为问卷(MDBQ)、大五人格测试(NEO人格量表)和半结构化访谈(精神分裂症和情感障碍量表)。两年后,我们调查了所有涉及所招募司机的人为因素导致的事故。使用SPSS软件对数据进行分析,采用描述性统计、t检验和多元逻辑回归分析方法。P值小于0.05被认为具有统计学意义。

结果

在控制有效变量和人口统计学变量方面,研究结果显示,发生和未发生道路事故的两组司机之间存在显著差异。此外,发现抑郁和焦虑分别可使道路事故的比值比(OR)增加2.4倍和2.7倍(P = 0.04,P = 0.004)。值得注意的是,仅神经质就可使道路事故的几率增加1.1倍(P = 0.009),但其他人格因素对该等式没有显著影响。

结论

结果表明,一些精神障碍会影响道路碰撞事故的发生率。考虑到驾驶行为的重要性和敏感性,在驾驶员领取或更新驾照之前和之后评估影响他们的多种心理因素是必要的。