Petersen Alexander M, Puliga Michelangelo
Ernest and Julio Gallo Management Program, School of Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95343, USA
Laboratory for the Analysis of Complex Economic Systems, IMT Lucca School for Advanced Studies, Lucca 55100, Italy.
J R Soc Interface. 2017 Mar;14(128). doi: 10.1098/rsif.2017.0030.
The extent to which international high-skilled mobility channels are forming is a question of great importance in an increasingly global knowledge-based economy. One factor facilitating the growth of high-skilled labour markets is the standardization of certifiable degrees meriting international recognition. Within this context, we analysed an extensive high-skilled mobility database comprising roughly 382 000 individuals from five broad profession groups (Medical, Education, Technical, Science & Engineering and Business & Legal) over the period 1997-2014, using the 13-country expansion of the European Union (EU) to provide insight into labour market integration. We compare the periods before and after the 2004 enlargement, showing the emergence of a new east-west migration channel between the 13 mostly eastern EU entrants (E) and the rest of the western European countries (W). Indeed, we observe a net directional loss of human capital from E → W, representing 29% of the total mobility after 2004. Nevertheless, the counter-migration from W → E is 7% of the total mobility over the same period, signalling the emergence of brain circulation within the EU. Our analysis of the country-country mobility networks and the country-profession bipartite networks provides timely quantitative evidence for the convergent integration of the EU, and highlights the central role of the UK and Germany as high-skilled labour hubs. We conclude with two data-driven models to explore the structural dynamics of the mobility networks. First, we develop a reconfiguration model to explore the potential ramifications of Brexit and the degree to which redirection of high-skilled labourers away from the UK may impact the integration of the rest of the European mobility network. Second, we use a panel regression model to explain empirical high-skilled mobility rates in terms of various economic 'push-pull' factors, the results of which show that government expenditure on education, wealth, geographical proximity and labour force size are significant attractive features of destination countries.
在日益全球化的知识经济中，国际高技能人才流动渠道的形成程度是一个极为重要的问题。促进高技能劳动力市场增长的一个因素是可认证学位的标准化，这些学位值得国际认可。在此背景下，我们分析了一个庞大的高技能人才流动数据库，该数据库涵盖了1997年至2014年期间来自五个广泛职业群体（医疗、教育、技术、科学与工程以及商业与法律）的约38.2万人，利用欧盟（EU）13国的扩张来深入了解劳动力市场一体化情况。我们比较了2004年扩大之前和之后的时期，展示了13个主要为东欧的欧盟新成员国（E）与西欧其他国家（W）之间新的东西向移民渠道的出现。事实上，我们观察到从E→W的人力资本出现净定向流失，占2004年之后总流动量的29%。然而，从W→E的反向移民占同期总流动量的7%，这表明欧盟内部出现了人才环流。我们对国家间流动网络和国家 - 职业二分网络的分析为欧盟的趋同一体化提供了及时的定量证据，并突出了英国和德国作为高技能劳动力中心的核心作用。我们以两个数据驱动模型结束，以探索流动网络的结构动态。首先，我们开发了一个重新配置模型，以探讨英国脱欧的潜在影响以及高技能劳动者从英国转移可能对欧洲其他流动网络一体化产生影响的程度。其次，我们使用面板回归模型，根据各种经济“推拉”因素来解释高技能人才流动的实证率，结果表明政府在教育方面的支出、财富、地理 proximity 和劳动力规模是目的地国家具有吸引力的重要特征。 （注：“地理 proximity”这里原文有误，可能是“地理 proximity”，但不太明确具体意思，可能是“地理接近度”之类的，暂按原样翻译）
