Kang Hyeon-Woo, Kang Hang-Bong
Dept. of Digital Media, Catholic University of Korea, Bucheon, Gyonggi-Do, Korea.
PLoS One. 2017 Apr 24;12(4):e0176244. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176244. eCollection 2017.
In recent years, various studies have been conducted on the prediction of crime occurrences. This predictive capability is intended to assist in crime prevention by facilitating effective implementation of police patrols. Previous studies have used data from multiple domains such as demographics, economics, and education. Their prediction models treat data from different domains equally. These methods have problems in crime occurrence prediction, such as difficulty in discovering highly nonlinear relationships, redundancies, and dependencies between multiple datasets. In order to enhance crime prediction models, we consider environmental context information, such as broken windows theory and crime prevention through environmental design. In this paper, we propose a feature-level data fusion method with environmental context based on a deep neural network (DNN). Our dataset consists of data collected from various online databases of crime statistics, demographic and meteorological data, and images in Chicago, Illinois. Prior to generating training data, we select crime-related data by conducting statistical analyses. Finally, we train our DNN, which consists of the following four kinds of layers: spatial, temporal, environmental context, and joint feature representation layers. Coupled with crucial data extracted from various domains, our fusion DNN is a product of an efficient decision-making process that statistically analyzes data redundancy. Experimental performance results show that our DNN model is more accurate in predicting crime occurrence than other prediction models.
近年来,针对犯罪事件预测开展了各类研究。这种预测能力旨在通过促进警察巡逻的有效实施来协助预防犯罪。以往的研究使用了来自人口统计学、经济学和教育等多个领域的数据。它们的预测模型对来自不同领域的数据一视同仁。这些方法在犯罪事件预测中存在问题,比如难以发现高度非线性关系、多个数据集之间的冗余和依赖性。为了改进犯罪预测模型,我们考虑了环境背景信息,如破窗理论和通过环境设计预防犯罪。在本文中,我们提出了一种基于深度神经网络(DNN)的具有环境背景的特征级数据融合方法。我们的数据集由从伊利诺伊州芝加哥市的各种犯罪统计在线数据库、人口统计和气象数据以及图像中收集的数据组成。在生成训练数据之前,我们通过进行统计分析来选择与犯罪相关的数据。最后,我们训练我们的DNN,它由以下四种层组成:空间层、时间层、环境背景层和联合特征表示层。结合从各个领域提取的关键数据,我们的融合DNN是一个对数据冗余进行统计分析的高效决策过程的产物。实验性能结果表明,我们的DNN模型在预测犯罪事件方面比其他预测模型更准确。