Viedma Olga, Moreno José M, Güngöroglu Cumhur, Cosgun Ufuk, Kavgacı Ali
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales, Avda. Carlos III, 45071 Toledo, Spain.
Forestry Faculty of Karabuk University, Balıklarkayası mevkii, Karabuk, Turkey.
J Environ Manage. 2017 Jul 15;197:719-731. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.074. Epub 2017 Apr 24.
During the last decades, contrasted trends in forest fires among countries around the Mediterranean basin have been observed. In the northern/western countries, Land Use-Land Cover (LULC) changes led to more hazardous landscapes, with consequent increases in fires. This contrasted with fire trends in southern/eastern countries. The recent incidence of large fires in some of the latter prompted the question of whether they are now following the path of their neighbors decades earlier. In this study, we investigated recent LULC changes in southwestern Turkey, focusing on those that could affect fire, and the factors driving them. To this end, LULC maps at different time steps (1975, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were obtained from Landsat images, together with relevant socioeconomic data. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were applied to assess the effects of socioeconomic and geophysical factors on the dominant LULC changes over time. Over the whole period studied, the most important LULC changes were deforestation followed by afforestation. Deforestation was positively related to high livestock density and proximity to villages and increased forest interfaces with other LULC types. We found no evidence that LULC changes were making the landscape more hazardous as there was a net decrease in fuels biomass and the landscape became more fragmented over time. However, despite the area being heavily used and relatively fragmented, large fires can occur driven by severe weather.
在过去几十年中，地中海盆地周边国家的森林火灾呈现出不同的趋势。在北部/西部国家，土地利用-土地覆盖（LULC）变化导致景观更加危险，火灾随之增加。这与南部/东部国家的火灾趋势形成对比。最近，后者中的一些国家发生了大型火灾，这引发了一个问题，即它们现在是否正在走上其邻国几十年前的老路。在这项研究中，我们调查了土耳其西南部最近的LULC变化，重点关注那些可能影响火灾的变化及其驱动因素。为此，我们从陆地卫星图像中获取了不同时间步长（1975年、1990年、2000年和2010年）的LULC地图，以及相关的社会经济数据。应用广义线性混合模型（GLMMs）来评估社会经济和地球物理因素对随时间变化的主要LULC变化的影响。在整个研究期间，最重要的LULC变化是森林砍伐，其次是造林。森林砍伐与高牲畜密度、靠近村庄以及森林与其他LULC类型的界面增加呈正相关。我们没有发现证据表明LULC变化使景观变得更加危险，因为燃料生物量净减少，而且随着时间的推移景观变得更加破碎。然而，尽管该地区被大量利用且相对破碎，但恶劣天气仍可能引发大型火灾。
