Early Detection of Peak Demand Days of Chronic Respiratory Diseases Emergency Department Visits Using Artificial Neural Networks.

Chronic respiratory diseases, mainly asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), affect the lives of people by limiting their activities in various aspects. Overcrowding of hospital emergency departments (EDs) due to respiratory diseases in certain weather and environmental pollution conditions results in the degradation of quality of medical care, and even limits its availability. A useful tool for ED managers would be to forecast peak demand days so that they can take steps to improve the availability of medical care. In this paper, we developed an artificial neural network based classifier using multilayer perceptron with back propagation algorithm that predicts peak event (peak demand days) of patients with respiratory diseases, mainly asthma and COPD visiting EDs in Dallas County of Texas in the United States. The precision and recall for peak event class were 77.1% and 78.0%, respectively, and those for nonpeak events were 83.9% and 83.2%, respectively. The overall accuracy of the system is 81.0%.