Charafeddine Maya A, Olson Sara H, Mukherji Deborah, Temraz Sally N, Abou-Alfa Ghassan K, Shamseddine Ali I
Department of Hematology-Oncology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, P.O Box 11-0236, Riad El Solh, Beirut, 1107 2020, Lebanon.
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 300 East 66th Street, New York, NY, 10065, USA.
BMC Cancer. 2017 May 18;17(1):337. doi: 10.1186/s12885-017-3304-7.
Providing an estimate of the percentage of cancer in Lebanon by 2018 that is due to the exposure to risk factors in 2008. Factors include: smoking, body mass index (BMI), physical inactivity, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, infections, and air pollution in adults.
Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) was calculated using the proportion of the population exposed and relative risks for each risk factor from meta-analyses. The PAF estimates the proportion of cases in which exposure may have played a causal role.
Smoking caused most cancer cases, and it will further add a total of 1800 new cases by 2018. Among many other cancers, lung cancer had the largest proportion attributable of around 75%. BMI is expected to increase colorectal, liver and gastric cardia carcinoma specifically in males. High physical activity has a an average of 15% protection rate on cancer on colorectal cancer. Minimal adherence to Mediterranean diet will affect gastric cancer incidence by 7%. Cases of oropharyngeal and esophageal cancer will be the result of alcohol consumption mainly in males. H.Pylori infection is expected to result in half of the gastric cases by 2018. The high exposure to air pollution is expected to contribute by 13% to lung cancer cases in 2018.
The highest benefits can be achieved by controlling tobacco smoking. Interrelated and small changes in weight, physical activity and healthy diet with limited alcohol consumption can protect against several GI cancers in the long run. These results can be used to determine public health interventions that target important risk factors in the general population.
估计2018年黎巴嫩因2008年接触风险因素而导致的癌症百分比。这些因素包括：吸烟、体重指数（BMI）、缺乏体育锻炼、饮食因素、饮酒、感染以及成年人中的空气污染。
使用暴露人群比例和荟萃分析得出的各风险因素相对风险来计算人群归因分数（PAF）。PAF估计了暴露可能起因果作用的病例比例。
吸烟导致的癌症病例最多，到2018年将新增1800例。在许多其他癌症中，肺癌的归因比例最高，约为75%。预计BMI的增加会导致男性结直肠癌、肝癌和贲门癌的发病率上升。高强度体育锻炼对结直肠癌的癌症保护率平均为15%。对地中海饮食的最低限度遵循会使胃癌发病率受影响7%。口咽癌和食管癌病例主要是男性饮酒所致。预计到2018年，幽门螺杆菌感染将导致一半的胃癌病例。高空气污染暴露预计在2018年导致13%的肺癌病例。
控制吸烟可获得最大益处。从长远来看，体重、体育锻炼和健康饮食方面相互关联的微小变化以及有限度的饮酒可预防多种胃肠道癌症。这些结果可用于确定针对普通人群重要风险因素的公共卫生干预措施。
