Konings Marco J, Hettinga Florentina J
Int J Sports Physiol Perform. 2018 Feb 1;13(2):170-175. doi: 10.1123/ijspp.2016-0779. Epub 2018 Feb 14.
To objectively capture and understand tactical considerations in a race, the authors explored whether race-to-race variation of an athlete and the variation of competitors within a race could provide insight into how and when athletes modify their pacing decisions in response to other competitors.
Lap times of elite 500-, 1000-, and 1500-m short-track speed-skating competitions from 2011 to 2016 (N = 6965 races) were collected. Log-transformed lap and finishing times were analyzed with mixed linear models. To determine within-athlete race-to-race variability, athlete identity (between-athletes differences) and the residual (within-athlete race-to-race variation) were added as random effects. To determine race variability, race identity (between-races differences) and the residual (within-race variation) were added as random effects. Separate analyses were performed for each event.
Within-athlete race-to-race variability of the finishing times increased with prolonged distance of the event (500-m, CV = 1.6%; 1000-m, CV = 2.8%; 1500-m, CV = 4.1%), mainly due to higher within-athlete race-to-race variability in the initial phase of 1000-m (3.3-6.9%) and 1500-m competitions (8.7-12.2%). During these early stages, within-race variability is relatively low in 1000-m (1.1-1.4%) and 1500-m (1.3-2.8%) competitions.
The present study demonstrated how analyses of athlete and race variability could provide insight into tactical pacing decisions in sports where finishing position is emphasized over finishing time. The high variability of short-track skaters is a result of the decision to alter initial pacing behavior based on the behavior of other competitors in their race, emphasizing the importance of athlete-environment interactions in the context of pacing.
为了客观地捕捉和理解比赛中的战术考量，作者探讨了运动员在不同比赛间的差异以及同一场比赛中竞争对手的差异，是否能为洞察运动员如何以及何时根据其他竞争对手调整其配速决策提供线索。
收集了2011年至2016年精英500米、1000米和1500米短道速滑比赛的单圈用时（N = 6965场比赛）。对经对数转换的单圈用时和完赛用时采用混合线性模型进行分析。为确定运动员在不同比赛间的变异性，将运动员身份（运动员间差异）和残差（运动员在不同比赛间的变异性）作为随机效应纳入分析。为确定比赛变异性，将比赛身份（不同比赛间差异）和残差（同一场比赛内的变异性）作为随机效应纳入分析。对每个项目分别进行分析。
完赛用时的运动员在不同比赛间的变异性随着比赛距离的延长而增加（500米，变异系数 = 1.6%；1000米，变异系数 = 2.8%；1500米，变异系数 = 4.1%），这主要是由于在1000米比赛（3.3 - 6.9%）和1500米比赛（8.7 - 12.2%）的初始阶段，运动员在不同比赛间的变异性更高。在这些早期阶段，1000米比赛（1.1 - 1.4%）和1500米比赛（1.3 - 2.8%）中同一场比赛内的变异性相对较低。
本研究展示了对运动员和比赛变异性的分析如何能为在强调完赛名次而非完赛时间的运动项目中的战术配速决策提供见解。短道速滑运动员的高变异性是基于其在比赛中根据其他竞争对手的行为改变初始配速行为这一决策的结果，强调了在配速背景下运动员与环境相互作用的重要性。
