过去二十年平流层增暖。

Tropospheric Warming Over The Past Two Decades.

机构信息

Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 94550, USA.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2017 May 24;7(1):2336. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02520-7.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-02520-7

PMID:28539644

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5443760/

Abstract

Satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a "leveling off of warming" over the past two decades. Tropospheric warming trends over recent 20-year periods are always significantly larger (at the 10% level or better) than model estimates of 20-year trends arising from natural internal variability. Over the full 38-year period of the satellite record, the separation between observed warming and internal variability estimates is even clearer. In two out of three recent satellite datasets, the tropospheric warming from 1979 to 2016 is unprecedented relative to internally generated temperature trends on the 38-year timescale.

摘要

卫星温度测量结果并不支持过去二十年“变暖趋缓”的说法。在最近二十年期间，对流层变暖趋势始终明显大于（在 10%水平或以上）由自然内部变率引起的模型估计的二十年趋势。在卫星记录的整整 38 年期间，观测到的变暖与内部变率估计之间的分离更加明显。在最近的三个卫星数据集当中有两个数据集显示，1979 年至 2016 年的对流层变暖与 38 年时间尺度上的内部产生的温度趋势相比是前所未有的。