Institute for Geophysics, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, J. J. Pickle Research Campus, Building 196, 10100 Burnet Road (R2200), Austin, Texas 78758, USA.
Climate Analysis Section, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA.
Nat Commun. 2017 Jun 6;8:15531. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15531.
In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.
2016 年 4 月，东南亚经历了地表气温（SAT）超过国家记录的情况，这加剧了能源消耗，扰乱了农业生产，并导致了严重的人体不适。在这里，我们利用观测资料和一组全球变暖模拟结果，展示了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）现象和长期变暖对区域 SAT 极端事件的综合影响。我们发现 ENSO 与东南亚 SAT 之间存在很强的关系，几乎所有的 4 月极端事件都发生在厄尔尼诺年。然后，我们量化了长期变暖以及 2015-16 年厄尔尼诺对 2016 年 4 月极端 SAT 的相对贡献。结果表明，全球变暖增加了破纪录的 4 月极端事件的可能性，我们估计 2016 年的异常有 29%是由变暖引起的，49%是由厄尔尼诺引起的。这些厄尔尼诺之后的 4 月可能会提前几个月预测到，因此，有助于社会为预计的极端事件的持续增加做好准备。
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