Li Yifan, Wang Juanle, Gao Mengxu, Fang Liqun, Liu Changhua, Lyu Xin, Bai Yongqing, Zhao Qiang, Li Hairong, Yu Hongjie, Cao Wuchun, Feng Liqiang, Wang Yanjun, Zhang Bin
State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China.
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 May 26;14(6):569. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14060569.
Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of natural foci diseases transmitted by ticks. Its distribution and transmission are closely related to geographic and environmental factors. Identification of environmental determinates of TBE is of great importance to understanding the general distribution of existing and potential TBE natural foci. Hulunbuir, one of the most severe endemic areas of the disease, is selected as the study area. Statistical analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and regression methods were applied to detect the spatiotemporal characteristics, compare the impact degree of associated factors, and model the risk distribution using the heterogeneity. The statistical analysis of gridded geographic and environmental factors and TBE incidence show that the TBE patients mainly occurred during spring and summer and that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation between the distribution of TBE cases and environmental characteristics. The impact degree of these factors on TBE risks has the following descending order: temperature, relative humidity, vegetation coverage, precipitation and topography. A high-risk area with a triangle shape was determined in the central part of Hulunbuir; the low-risk area is located in the two belts next to the outside edge of the central triangle. The TBE risk distribution revealed that the impact of the geographic factors changed depending on the heterogeneity.
蜱传脑炎（TBE）是由蜱传播的自然疫源性疾病之一。其分布和传播与地理和环境因素密切相关。确定蜱传脑炎的环境决定因素对于了解现有和潜在蜱传脑炎自然疫源地的总体分布至关重要。呼伦贝尔是该病最严重的流行地区之一，被选为研究区域。应用统计分析、全局和局部空间自相关分析以及回归方法来检测时空特征，比较相关因素的影响程度，并利用异质性对风险分布进行建模。对网格化地理和环境因素以及蜱传脑炎发病率的统计分析表明，蜱传脑炎患者主要发生在春季和夏季，蜱传脑炎病例分布与环境特征之间存在显著的正空间自相关。这些因素对蜱传脑炎风险的影响程度依次为：温度、相对湿度、植被覆盖度、降水量和地形。在呼伦贝尔中部确定了一个三角形的高风险区域；低风险区域位于中央三角形外边缘旁边的两条地带。蜱传脑炎风险分布表明，地理因素的影响因异质性而有所不同。
