未来几十年帕金森病患病率预测：再探讨。
Projection of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in the coming decades: Revisited.
机构信息
Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine, Hershey, Pennsylvania, USA.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
出版信息
Mov Disord. 2018 Jan;33(1):156-159. doi: 10.1002/mds.27063. Epub 2017 Jun 7.
OBJECTIVE
Previous studies have estimated future PD prevalence based on population aging. This study revisits that projection by accounting for the potential impact of declining rates of smoking.
METHODS
The age- and gender-stratified smoking prevalence in the United States from 2000 to 2040 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Surgeon General's Smoking Report. PD prevalence was estimated based on population aging with and without an account of the impact of declining smoking rates. Relative risks of 0.56 and 0.78 were applied for current and former smokers, respectively.
RESULTS
Accounting for aging alone, ∼700,000 PD cases are predicted by 2040. After accounting for the declining smoking prevalence, ∼770,000 cases, an increase of ∼10% over the estimate without smoking, is predicted.
CONCLUSIONS
If the epidemiological association of smoking and PD is causal, projecting future cases without considering smoking may underestimate disease burden, underscoring the urgency of adequate resource allocation. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.
目的
先前的研究基于人口老龄化预测了未来的帕金森病（PD）患病率。本研究通过考虑吸烟率下降的潜在影响，重新审视这一预测。
方法
从美国人口普查局和美国外科医生总署的吸烟报告中获取了 2000 年至 2040 年美国按年龄和性别分层的吸烟流行率。基于人口老龄化，考虑和不考虑吸烟率下降的影响来估计 PD 的患病率。分别为当前吸烟者和曾经吸烟者应用相对风险 0.56 和 0.78。
结果
仅考虑老龄化，到 2040 年预计将有∼70 万 PD 病例。在考虑到吸烟率下降后，预计将有∼77 万例病例，比不考虑吸烟的预测增加约 10%。
结论
如果吸烟与 PD 的流行病学关联是因果关系，那么在预测未来病例时不考虑吸烟可能会低估疾病负担，这突显了充分资源配置的紧迫性。 © 2017 国际帕金森病和运动障碍协会。
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