对承诺变暖的高估。
Overestimate of committed warming.
作者信息
Schmidt Gavin A, Severinghaus Jeff, Abe-Ouchi Ayako, Alley Richard B, Broecker Wallace, Brook Ed, Etheridge David, Kawamura Kenji, Keeling Ralph F, Leinen Margaret, Marvel Kate, Stocker Thomas F
机构信息
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093, USA.
出版信息
Nature. 2017 Jul 12;547(7662):E16-E17. doi: 10.1038/nature22803.
Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO concentrations. A recent study used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years to estimate the ESS from present day CO is about 9°C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3–7°C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations. However, we demonstrate that the methodology of ref. does not reliably estimate the ESS in the presence of orbital forcing of ice age cycles and therefore conclude that the inferred present-day committed warming is considerably overestimated. There is a Reply to this Comment by Snyder, C. W. 547, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22804 (2017).
古气候变化是限制未来气候变化预测（作为人为温室气体增加的函数）的一个重要组成部分。地球系统敏感性（ESS）描述了地球（就全球平均温度而言）对二氧化碳浓度翻倍的多千年响应。最近的一项研究利用过去80万年推断温度与温室气体辐射强迫之间的相关性，估计当今二氧化碳条件下的地球系统敏感性约为9°C，并暗示即使温室气体水平保持在当前浓度，长期升温幅度也将达到3 - 7°C。然而，我们证明参考文献中的方法在存在冰期旋回轨道强迫的情况下不能可靠地估计地球系统敏感性，因此得出结论，推断的当今升温幅度被大大高估了。斯奈德（C. W. Snyder）对此评论有回应，见547页，http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22804 (2017)。
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