Gulagi Ashish, Choudhary Piyush, Bogdanov Dmitrii, Breyer Christian
Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta, Finland.
Indian Institute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi, India.
PLoS One. 2017 Jul 19;12(7):e0180611. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180611. eCollection 2017.
The developing region of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is home to a large number of people living below the poverty line. In future, providing affordable, universally accessible, reliable, low to zero carbon electricity in this region will be the main aim. A cost optimal 100% renewable energy system is simulated for SAARC for the year 2030 on an hourly resolved basis. The region was divided into 16 sub-regions and three different scenarios were set up based on the level of high voltage direct current (HVDC) grid connections. The results obtained for a total system levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) showed a decrease from 71.6 €/MWh in a decentralized to 67.2 €/MWh for a centralized grid connected scenario. An additional scenario was simulated to show the benefits of integrating industrial gas production and seawater reverse osmosis desalination demand, and showed the system cost decreased by 5% and total electricity generation decreased by 1%. The results show that a 100% renewable energy system could be a reality in the SAARC region with the cost assumptions used in this research and it may be more cost competitive than nuclear and fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) alternatives. One of the limitations of this study is the cost of land for installation of renewables which is not included in the LCOE calculations, but regarded as a minor contribution.
南盟（南亚区域合作联盟）的发展中地区有大量生活在贫困线以下的人口。未来，在该地区提供负担得起、普遍可及、可靠、低碳至零碳的电力将是主要目标。针对南盟地区，以小时为分辨率，模拟了2030年成本最优的100%可再生能源系统。该地区被划分为16个子区域，并根据高压直流（HVDC）电网连接水平设置了三种不同情景。所获得的全系统平准化度电成本（LCOE）结果显示，从分散式情景下的71.6欧元/兆瓦时降至集中式并网情景下的67.2欧元/兆瓦时。还模拟了一个额外情景，以展示整合工业气体生产和海水反渗透淡化需求的益处，结果显示系统成本降低了5%，总发电量降低了1%。结果表明，基于本研究中所采用的成本假设，100%可再生能源系统在南盟地区可能成为现实，并且它可能比核能以及化石碳捕获与封存（CCS）替代方案更具成本竞争力。本研究的局限性之一是可再生能源安装所需土地成本未包含在LCOE计算中，但认为这一贡献较小。
