Rudnick Ivan, Duenas-Martinez Pablo, Botterud Audun, Papageorgiou Dimitri J, Mignone Bryan K, Rajagopalan Srinivasan, Harper Michael R, Ganesan Karthik
MIT Energy Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
iScience. 2022 Mar 2;25(4):104017. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.104017. eCollection 2022 Apr 15.
India is the third largest CO emitter worldwide, and its electricity demand, which is primarily supplied by coal-fired generation, is expected to increase almost threefold over the next twenty years. Here, we simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector, considering uncertainty in future natural gas prices and costs for batteries and variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, under different CO emissions limits and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets. We find a large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly, solar PV, in most scenarios. Furthermore, energy storage competes with natural gas and coal to provide flexibility to integrate VRE. Given a set of technology assumptions, policies that explicitly limit CO emissions are more cost-effective at reducing emissions than RPS policies. The former are also more effective at reducing air pollution than RPS policies by explicitly penalizing CO emissions, thereby reducing coal generation more substantially than RPS policies.
印度是全球第三大二氧化碳排放国，其电力需求主要由燃煤发电供应，预计在未来二十年内将增长近两倍。在此，我们针对2040年印度电力部门模拟了40种情景，考虑了未来天然气价格以及电池和可变可再生能源（VRE）技术成本的不确定性，这些情景处于不同的二氧化碳排放限制和可再生能源配额标准（RPS）目标之下。我们发现在大多数情景中，VRE，尤其是太阳能光伏，会大规模扩张。此外，储能与天然气和煤炭竞争，以提供整合VRE所需的灵活性。在给定一组技术假设的情况下，明确限制二氧化碳排放的政策在减排方面比RPS政策更具成本效益。前者通过明确惩罚二氧化碳排放，在减少空气污染方面也比RPS政策更有效，从而比RPS政策更显著地减少煤炭发电量。
