Wohland Jan, Reyers Mark, Märker Carolin, Witthaut Dirk
Institute for Energy and Climate Research (IEK-STE), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany.
Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
PLoS One. 2018 Jan 12;13(1):e0190707. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190707. eCollection 2018.
Avoiding dangerous climate change necessitates the decarbonization of electricity systems within the next few decades. In Germany, this decarbonization is based on an increased exploitation of variable renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar power. While system security has remained constantly high, the integration of renewables causes additional costs. In 2015, the costs of grid management saw an all time high of about € 1 billion. Despite the addition of renewable capacity, these costs dropped substantially in 2016. We thus investigate the effect of natural climate variability on grid management costs in this study. We show that the decline is triggered by natural wind variability focusing on redispatch as a main cost driver. In particular, we find that 2016 was a weak year in terms of wind generation averages and the occurrence of westerly circulation weather types. Moreover, we show that a simple model based on the wind generation time series is skillful in detecting redispatch events on timescales of weeks and beyond. As a consequence, alterations in annual redispatch costs in the order of hundreds of millions of euros need to be understood and communicated as a normal feature of the current system due to natural wind variability.
要避免危险的气候变化，就必须在未来几十年内实现电力系统的脱碳。在德国，这种脱碳是基于对可变可再生能源（如风能和太阳能）的更多利用。尽管系统安全性一直保持在较高水平，但可再生能源的整合带来了额外成本。2015年，电网管理成本达到了约10亿欧元的历史最高水平。尽管增加了可再生能源发电能力，但这些成本在2016年大幅下降。因此，在本研究中，我们调查了自然气候变率对电网管理成本的影响。我们表明，成本下降是由自然风的变率引发的，重点关注作为主要成本驱动因素的重新调度。特别是，我们发现2016年在风力发电平均值和西风环流天气类型的出现方面是较弱的一年。此外，我们表明，基于风力发电时间序列的简单模型能够很好地检测数周及更长时间尺度上的重新调度事件。因此，由于自然风的变率，当前系统中每年数亿欧元的重新调度成本变化应被理解并作为正常特征进行通报。
