Hallberg Daniel, Lagergren Mårten
Institute for Futures Studies, Box 591, 101 31 Stockholm, Sweden.
Stockholm Gerontology Research Center, Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur J Ageing. 2009 Apr 7;6(2):137-145. doi: 10.1007/s10433-009-0111-2. eCollection 2009 Jun.
In this paper, we present empirical results for the very old (75+) concerning transitions between independent living in ordinary home without public support, independent living in ordinary home or special accommodations with home help and home health care, and living in around the clock care. We investigate the role of age and gender, dependency in activities of daily living (ADL) and the informal support from a partner. We also study mortality conditional on the above-mentioned variables and on the mode of old age care. The results show that the propensity to move to a more intensive mode of care is less for males, higher with more limitations in personal ADL and increasing with age. There is also a stabilizing effect of the availability of informal care support, as measured by marriage or cohabitation, as it makes it less likely to move from the current care mode. In the case of mortality, the observed relations pointed in the expected directions-mortality increasing with increasing PADL-limitations and age and being higher for men than for women. The age relation, however, does not hold in the same way in around the clock care. The estimated relationships are used as input in a micro-simulation model intended for analysis of the effect of population aging on the needs and resource requirements for old age care in Sweden.
在本文中，我们给出了针对高龄老人（75岁及以上）的实证结果，内容涉及在无公共支持的普通家庭中独立生活、在有居家帮助和家庭医疗护理的普通家庭或特殊住所中独立生活，以及接受全天候护理之间的转变情况。我们研究了年龄和性别、日常生活活动（ADL）中的依赖程度以及伴侣提供的非正式支持所起的作用。我们还研究了以上述变量以及老年护理模式为条件的死亡率。结果表明，男性转向更密集护理模式的倾向较小，个人ADL受限越多该倾向越高，且随着年龄增长而增加。婚姻或同居所衡量的非正式护理支持的可获得性也有稳定作用，因为这使得从当前护理模式转变的可能性降低。在死亡率方面，观察到的关系指向预期方向——死亡率随着PADL受限程度和年龄的增加而上升，且男性高于女性。然而，年龄关系在全天候护理中并非以同样的方式成立。所估计的关系被用作一个微观模拟模型的输入，该模型旨在分析人口老龄化对瑞典老年护理需求和资源需求的影响。
