Fumarco Luca, Gibbs Benjamin G, Jarvis Jonathan A, Rossi Giambattista
Research Division RED, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC), Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
Department of Sociology, Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 14;12(8):e0182827. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182827. eCollection 2017.
Like many sports in adolescence, junior hockey is organized by age groups. Typically, players born after December 31st are placed in the subsequent age cohort and as a result, will have an age advantage over those players born closer to the end of the year. While this relative age effect (RAE) has been well-established in junior hockey and other professional sports, the long-term impact of this phenomenon is not well understood. Using roster data on North American National Hockey League (NHL) players from the 2008-2009 season to the 2015-2016 season, we document a RAE reversal-players born in the last quarter of the year (October-December) score more and command higher salaries than those born in the first quarter of the year. This reversal is even more pronounced among the NHL "elite." We find that among players in the 90th percentile of scoring, those born in the last quarter of the year score about 9 more points per season than those born in the first quarter. Likewise, elite players in the 90th percentile of salary who are born in the last quarter of the year earn 51% more pay than players born at the start of the year. Surprisingly, compared to players at the lower end of the performance distribution, the RAE reversal is about three to four times greater among elite players.
和许多青少年体育项目一样，青少年曲棍球也是按年龄组来组织的。通常，12月31日之后出生的球员会被分入下一个年龄组，因此，他们相对于那些接近年末出生的球员会有年龄优势。虽然这种相对年龄效应（RAE）在青少年曲棍球和其他职业体育中已得到充分证实，但这一现象的长期影响尚未得到很好的理解。利用2008 - 2009赛季至2015 - 2016赛季北美国家冰球联盟（NHL）球员的花名册数据，我们记录到了相对年龄效应的反转——在一年最后一个季度（10月至12月）出生的球员比在一年第一季度出生的球员得分更多，薪水也更高。这种反转在NHL“精英”球员中更为明显。我们发现，在得分处于第90百分位的球员中，在一年最后一个季度出生的球员比在第一季度出生的球员每个赛季得分大约多9分。同样，薪水处于第90百分位的精英球员中，在一年最后一个季度出生的球员比年初出生的球员薪水高出51%。令人惊讶的是，与表现分布较低端的球员相比，相对年龄效应的反转在精英球员中大约大三到四倍。
