Gray Laura K, Clarke Charles, Wint G R William, Moran Jonathan A
Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Australian Tropical Herbarium, James Cook University Cairns Campus, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 17;12(8):e0183132. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0183132. eCollection 2017.
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.
预计未来几十年，人为气候变化将对物种分布产生深远影响。在本文中，我们使用最大熵建模（Maxent）来估计气候预测变化对婆罗洲两种猪笼草属猪笼草气候适宜栖息地范围的影响。模型结果预测，到2100年，低地物种莱佛士猪笼草的气候适宜栖息地面积将增加；相比之下，同期高地物种毛盖猪笼草的气候适宜栖息地预计将大幅减少。基于模型结果，我们建议开展实际缓解策略的研究，因为大约三分之二的猪笼草仅限于山地栖息地。海拔范围狭窄的高地物种将面临特别高的风险，应对可能的缓解策略的调查应集中在这些物种上。
