Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Bristol BS40 5DU, UK.
NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2BN, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20210001. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0001. Epub 2021 May 31.
Infectious disease modelling has played an integral part of the scientific evidence used to guide the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, modelling evidence used for policy is reported to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) modelling subgroup, SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling-Operational). This Special Issue contains 20 articles detailing evidence that underpinned advice to the UK government during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK between January 2020 and July 2020. Here, we introduce the UK scientific advisory system and how it operates in practice, and discuss how infectious disease modelling can be useful in policy making. We examine the drawbacks of current publishing practices and academic credit and highlight the importance of transparency and reproducibility during an epidemic emergency. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
传染病建模在用于指导 COVID-19 大流行应对措施的科学证据中发挥了重要作用。在英国，用于政策的建模证据据报道给了紧急情况科学咨询小组（SAGE）建模小组，SPI-M-O（科学大流行性流感建模-运营小组）。本期特刊包含 20 篇文章，详细介绍了 2020 年 1 月至 7 月期间英国 SARS-CoV-2 大流行期间向英国政府提供建议的依据。在这里，我们介绍了英国科学咨询系统及其实际运作方式，并讨论了传染病建模在决策中的有用性。我们研究了当前出版实践和学术信用的缺陷，并强调了在传染病紧急情况下透明度和可重复性的重要性。本文是“塑造英国 COVID-19 大流行早期应对措施的建模”主题特刊的一部分。
