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中国 338 个城市与 PM 相关的健康和经济损失评估。

PM-related health and economic loss assessment for 338 Chinese cities.

机构信息

Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering (CESE), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036, India.

School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2018 Dec;121(Pt 1):392-403. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.024. Epub 2018 Sep 21.

DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2018.09.024
PMID:30245362
Abstract

China is in a critical stage of ambient air quality management after global attention on pollution in its cities. Industrial development and urbanization have led to alarming levels of air pollution with serious health hazards in densely populated cities. The quantification of cause-specific PM-related health impacts and corresponding economic loss estimation is crucial for control policies on ambient PM levels. Based on ground-level direct measurements of PM concentrations in 338 Chinese cities for the year 2016, this study estimates cause-specific mortality using integrated exposure-response (IER) model, non-linear power law (NLP) model and log-linear (LL) model followed by morbidity assessment using log-linear model. The willingness to pay (WTP) and cost of illness (COI) methods have been used for PM-attributed economic loss assessment. In 2016 in China, the annual PM concentration ranged between 10 and 157 μg/m and 78.79% of the total population was exposed to >35 μg/m PM concentration. Subsequently, the national PM-attributable mortality was 0.964 (95% CI: 0.447, 1.355) million (LL: 1.258 million and NPL: 0.770 million), about 9.98% of total reported deaths in China. Additionally, the total respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease-specific hospital admission morbidity were 0.605 million and 0.364 million. Estimated chronic bronchitis, asthma and emergency hospital admission morbidity were 0.986, 1.0 and 0.117 million respectively. Simultaneously, the PM exposure caused the economic loss of 101.39 billion US$, which is 0.91% of the national GDP in 2016. This study, for the first time, highlights the discrepancies associated with the three commonly used methodologies applied for cause-specific mortality assessment. Mortality and morbidity results of this study would provide a measurable assessment of 338 cities to the provincial and national policymakers of China for intensifying their efforts on air quality improvement.

摘要

中国在全球关注城市污染后,正处于大气环境质量管理的关键阶段。工业发展和城市化导致空气污染程度惊人,人口密集城市的健康受到严重威胁。量化特定原因的 PM 相关健康影响和相应的经济损失估算对于控制大气 PM 水平的政策至关重要。本研究基于 2016 年 338 个中国城市的地面直接 PM 浓度测量数据,使用综合暴露反应 (IER) 模型、非线性幂律 (NLP) 模型和对数线性 (LL) 模型估计特定原因死亡率,然后使用对数线性模型评估发病率。意愿支付 (WTP) 和疾病成本 (COI) 方法已用于 PM 归因经济损失评估。2016 年,中国年 PM 浓度范围在 10 到 157μg/m3 之间,78.79%的总人口暴露在>35μg/m3 PM 浓度下。随后,全国 PM 归因死亡率为 0.964(95%CI:0.447,1.355)百万人(LL:1.258 百万人和 NPL:0.770 百万人),占中国总报告死亡人数的 9.98%。此外,总呼吸系统疾病和心血管疾病特定住院发病率为 0.605 万和 0.364 万。估计慢性支气管炎、哮喘和急诊住院发病率分别为 0.986、1.0 和 0.117 万。同时,PM 暴露造成 1013.9 亿美元的经济损失,占 2016 年全国 GDP 的 0.91%。本研究首次突出了三种常用方法在特定原因死亡率评估中的差异。本研究的死亡率和发病率结果将为中国省级和国家决策者提供对 338 个城市的可衡量评估,以加强他们在改善空气质量方面的努力。

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