University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1285, United States; NBER, United States; IZA, Germany.
University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1285, United States; IZA, Germany.
J Health Econ. 2018 Jan;57:277-289. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2017.08.001. Epub 2017 Aug 14.
Previous research has found strong evidence that legal access to alcohol is associated with sizable increases in criminality. We revisit this relationship using the census of judicial records on criminal charges filed in Oregon Courts, the ability to separately track crimes involving firearms, and to track individuals over time. We find that crime increases at age 21, with increases mostly due to assaults that lack premeditation, and alcohol-related nuisance crimes. We find no evident increases in rape or robbery. Among those with no prior criminal records, increases in crime are 50% larger-still larger for the most socially costly crimes of assault and drunk driving.
先前的研究已经发现了强有力的证据，证明合法获得酒精与犯罪率的大幅上升有关。我们使用俄勒冈州法院刑事指控司法记录普查、单独追踪涉及枪支的犯罪的能力以及随时间追踪个人的能力重新研究了这种关系。我们发现，21 岁时犯罪率上升，增加主要是由于没有预谋的攻击，以及与酒精有关的滋扰犯罪。我们没有发现强奸或抢劫犯罪的明显增加。在没有犯罪记录的人中，犯罪增加了 50%，对于攻击和醉酒驾驶等社会成本最高的犯罪，增加幅度仍然更大。
