Parra-Amaya Mayra Elizabeth, Puerta-Yepes María Eugenia, Lizarralde-Bejarano Diana Paola, Arboleda-Sánchez Sair
Grupo de Análisis Funcional y Aplicaciones, Universidad EAFIT, Carrera 49 No. 7 Sur-50, Medellín 050022, Colombia.
Grupo Biología y Control de Enfermedades Infecciosas-BCEI, Universidad de Antioquia, Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellin 050010, Colombia.
Diseases. 2016 Mar 29;4(2):16. doi: 10.3390/diseases4020016.
Dengue is a viral disease caused by a flavivirus that is transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus . There is currently no specific treatment or commercial vaccine for its control and prevention; therefore, mosquito population control is the only alternative for preventing the occurrence of dengue. For this reason, entomological surveillance is recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) to measure dengue risk in endemic areas; however, several works have shown that the current methodology (aedic indices) is not sufficient for predicting dengue. In this work, we modified indices proposed for epidemic periods. The raw value of the epidemiological wave could be useful for detecting risk in epidemic periods; however, risk can only be detected if analyses incorporate the maximum epidemiological wave. Risk classification was performed according to Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) methodology. The modified indices were analyzed using several hypothetical scenarios to evaluate their sensitivity. We found that modified indices could detect spatial and differential risks in epidemic and endemic years, which makes them a useful tool for the early detection of a dengue outbreak. In conclusion, the modified indices could predict risk at the spatio-temporal level in endemic years and could be incorporated in surveillance activities in endemic places.
登革热是一种由黄病毒引起的病毒性疾病，通过伊蚊属蚊子传播。目前尚无针对其控制和预防的特效治疗方法或商业疫苗；因此，控制蚊子数量是预防登革热发生的唯一选择。出于这个原因，世界卫生组织（WHO）建议进行昆虫学监测，以衡量流行地区的登革热风险；然而，多项研究表明，当前的方法（伊蚊指数）不足以预测登革热。在这项研究中，我们修改了针对流行期提出的指数。流行病学波的原始值可能有助于在流行期检测风险；然而，只有在分析纳入最大流行病学波时才能检测到风险。根据空间自相关局部指标（LISA）方法进行风险分类。使用几种假设情景对修改后的指数进行分析，以评估其敏感性。我们发现，修改后的指数可以检测流行年和地方病年的空间和差异风险，这使其成为早期发现登革热疫情的有用工具。总之，修改后的指数可以预测地方病年的时空层面风险，并可纳入地方病地区的监测活动。
