Kalan Katja, Ivovic Vladimir, Glasnovic Peter, Buzan Elena
Department of Biodiversity, Faculty of Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Information Technologies, University of Primorska, Glagoljaška 8, 6000 Koper, Slovenia.
J Med Entomol. 2017 Nov 7;54(6):1510-1518. doi: 10.1093/jme/tjx150.
In Slovenia, two invasive mosquito species are present, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901) (Diptera: Culicidae). In this study, we examined their actual distribution and suitable habitats for new colonizations. Data from survey of species presence in 2013 and 2015, bioclimatic variables and altitude were used for the construction of predictive maps. We produced various models in Maxent software and tested two bioclimatic variable sets, WorldClim and CHELSA. For the variable selection of A. albopictus modeling we used statistical and expert knowledge-based approach, whereas for A. j. japonicus we used only a statistically based approach. The best performing models for both species were chosen according to AIC score-based evaluation. In 2 yr of sampling, A. albopictus was largely confined to the western half of Slovenia, whereas A. j. japonicus spread significantly and can be considered as an established species in a large part of the country. Comparison of models with WorldClim and CHELSA variables for both species showed models with CHELSA variables as a better tool for prediction. Finally, we validated the models performance in predicting distribution of species according to collected field data. Our study confirms that both species are co-occurring and are sympatric in a large part of the country area. The tested models could be used for future prevention of invasive mosquitoes spreading in other countries with similar bioclimatic conditions.
在斯洛文尼亚，存在两种入侵性蚊子物种，即白纹伊蚊（Skuse，1895年）（双翅目：蚊科）和日本伊蚊（Theobald，1901年）（双翅目：蚊科）。在本研究中，我们调查了它们的实际分布情况以及适合新栖息地形成的区域。利用2013年和2015年物种存在情况的调查数据、生物气候变量和海拔高度来构建预测地图。我们在Maxent软件中生成了各种模型，并测试了两组生物气候变量，即WorldClim和CHELSA。对于白纹伊蚊建模的变量选择，我们采用了基于统计和专家知识的方法，而对于日本伊蚊，我们仅采用了基于统计的方法。根据基于AIC评分的评估，选择了两种蚊子表现最佳的模型。在两年的采样过程中，白纹伊蚊主要局限于斯洛文尼亚的西半部，而日本伊蚊分布显著扩大，在该国大部分地区可被视为一种已定居的物种。对两种蚊子使用WorldClim和CHELSA变量的模型进行比较，结果表明以CHELSA变量构建的模型是更好的预测工具。最后，我们根据收集的实地数据验证了模型在预测物种分布方面的性能。我们的研究证实，这两种蚊子在该国大部分地区同时存在且同域分布。所测试的模型可用于未来预防入侵蚊子在其他具有类似生物气候条件的国家传播。
