Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Sci Rep. 2017 Oct 11;7(1):12973. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-13481-2.
Numerous historical works have mentioned that trade routes were to blame for the spread of plague in European history, yet this relationship has never been tested by quantitative evidence. Here, we resolve the hypothetical role of trade routes through statistical analysis on the geo-referenced major trade routes in the early modern period and the 6,656 geo-referenced plague outbreak records in AD1347-1760. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation results show that major trade routes played a dominant role in spreading plague in pre-industrial Europe. Furthermore, the negative correlation between plague outbreaks and their distance from major trade ports indicates the absence of a permanent plague focus in the inland areas of Europe. Major trade routes decided the major plague outbreak hotspots, while navigable rivers determined the geographic pattern of sporadic plague cases. A case study in Germany indicates that plague penetrated further into Europe through the local trade route network. Based on our findings, we propose the mechanism of plague transmission in historical Europe, which is imperative in demonstrating how pandemics were spread in recent human history.
许多历史著作都提到，贸易路线是导致欧洲历史上瘟疫传播的原因，但这种关系从未通过定量证据得到检验。在这里，我们通过对 1347-1760 年 AD 年间的 6656 个地理参考鼠疫爆发记录和早期现代时期的地理参考主要贸易路线的统计分析，解决了贸易路线的假设作用。普通最小二乘法（OLS）估计结果表明，主要贸易路线在工业化前的欧洲传播鼠疫方面发挥了主导作用。此外，鼠疫爆发与其与主要贸易港口的距离之间的负相关关系表明，欧洲内陆地区不存在永久性的鼠疫焦点。主要贸易路线决定了鼠疫爆发的主要热点，而可通航的河流则决定了散发性鼠疫病例的地理格局。德国的一个案例研究表明，鼠疫通过当地的贸易路线网络进一步渗透到欧洲。基于我们的发现，我们提出了历史上欧洲鼠疫传播的机制，这对于展示最近人类历史上大流行病是如何传播的至关重要。
