Schmid Boris V, Büntgen Ulf, Easterday W Ryan, Ginzler Christian, Walløe Lars, Bramanti Barbara, Stenseth Nils Chr
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway;
Dendroecology, Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; Global Change Research Centre AS CR, v.v.i., CZ-60300 Brno, Czech Republic; and.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 10;112(10):3020-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412887112. Epub 2015 Feb 23.
The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.
黑死病起源于亚洲，于公元1347年通过古代丝绸之路系统的陆路和海路贸易路线抵达欧洲的地中海港口。这场瘟疫标志着第二次鼠疫大流行的开始，该流行在欧洲一直持续到19世纪初。一般认为，这场大流行是由鼠疫耶尔森菌单次传入导致的，此后这种疾病在欧洲啮齿动物中持续存在了四个多世纪。为了找到这些假定的鼠疫疫源地，我们基于7711个地理定位的历史鼠疫爆发数据集以及来自欧洲和亚洲的15个每年解析的树木年轮记录，研究了区域鼠疫流行之前的气候波动情况。我们提供的证据表明，鼠疫杆菌因气候驱动多次从亚洲的疫源地重新传入欧洲港口，时间间隔为15±1年。我们的分析没有发现支持中世纪欧洲存在永久性鼠疫疫源地的证据。
