Rogers Paul, Fisk John E, Lowrie Emma
Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit, Department of Psychology, Goldsmith's College, University of London, New Cross, London SE14 8NW, UK.
School of Psychology, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire PR1 2HE, UK.
Conscious Cogn. 2017 Nov;56:13-29. doi: 10.1016/j.concog.2017.09.010. Epub 2017 Oct 12.
The present study examines the extent to which stronger belief in either extrasensory perception, psychokinesis or life-after-death is associated with a proneness to making conjunction errors (CEs). One hundred and sixty members of the UK public read eight hypothetical scenarios and for each estimated the likelihood that two constituent events alone plus their conjunction would occur. The impact of paranormal belief plus constituents' conditional relatedness type, estimates of the subjectively less likely and more likely constituents plus relevant interaction terms tested via three Generalized Linear Mixed Models. General qualification levels were controlled for. As expected, stronger PK beliefs and depiction of a positively conditionally related (verses conditionally unrelated) constituent pairs predicted higher CE generation. ESP and LAD beliefs had no impact with, surprisingly, higher estimates of the less likely constituent predicting fewer - not more - CEs. Theoretical implications, methodological issues and ideas for future research are discussed.
本研究考察了对超感官知觉、心灵致动或死后生命的更强信念与做出合取谬误（CEs）倾向之间的关联程度。160名英国公众阅读了八个假设情景，并对每个情景单独发生的两个组成事件以及它们的合取事件发生的可能性进行了估计。通过三个广义线性混合模型测试了超自然信念加上成分的条件相关性类型、对主观上不太可能和更可能的成分的估计以及相关交互项的影响。控制了一般资格水平。正如预期的那样，更强的心灵致动信念以及对正条件相关（相对于条件不相关）成分对的描述预测了更高的合取谬误发生率。超感官知觉和死后生命信念没有影响，令人惊讶的是，对可能性较小的成分的更高估计预测的合取谬误更少——而不是更多。讨论了理论意义、方法问题和未来研究的思路。
