Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit, Department of Psychology, Goldsmith's College, University of London, New Cross, London SE14 6NW, UK.
School of Psychology, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, Lancashire PR1 2HE, UK.
Conscious Cogn. 2018 Oct;65:182-196. doi: 10.1016/j.concog.2018.07.013. Epub 2018 Sep 8.
This study examines the extent to which belief in extrasensory perception (ESP), psychokinesis (PK) or life after death (LAD), plus need for cognition (NFC) and faith in intuition (FI), predict the generation of confirmatory conjunction errors. An opportunity sample (n = 261) completed sixteen conjunction problems manipulated across a 2 event type (paranormal vs. non-paranormal) × 2 outcome type (confirmatory vs. disconfirmatory) within subjects design. Three Generalised Linear Mixed Models - one per paranormal belief type - were performed. With respondent gender and age controlled for, ESP, PK and LAD beliefs were all associated with the making (vs. non-making) of conjunction errors both generally and specifically for confirmatory conjunctive outcomes. Event type had no impact. Individuals high in NFC were less likely to commit the fallacy. The role thinking style plays in shaping paranormal believers' susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction biases is discussed. Methodological issues and future research ideas are also considered.
本研究考察了超感官知觉（ESP）、心灵致动（PK）或死后生命（LAD）的信仰程度，以及认知需求（NFC）和对直觉的信仰（FI），是否能预测确认性联结错误的产生。采用机会样本（n=261），在被试内设计中完成了十六个联结问题，这些问题在事件类型（超自然与非超自然）和结果类型（确认性与非确认性）之间进行了操作。对三种广义线性混合模型——每一种超自然信念类型一种——进行了分析。在控制了受访者的性别和年龄后，ESP、PK 和 LAD 的信仰都与联结错误的产生（与不产生）有关，无论是普遍情况还是确认性联结结果的具体情况都是如此。事件类型没有影响。NFC 高的个体不太可能犯这种错误。还讨论了思维方式在塑造超自然信仰者对确认性联结偏差的易感性方面的作用。同时还考虑了方法学问题和未来的研究思路。
