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突尼斯的结直肠癌发病率趋势及预测(1994 - 2024年)。

Colorectal Cancer Incidence Trend and Projections in Tunisia (1994 - 2024).

作者信息

Khiari Houyem, Ben Ayoub Hizem Wided, Ben Khadhra Hajer, Hsairi Mohamed

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, Salah Azaiez Institute of Tunis, Tunisia. Email:

出版信息

Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2017 Oct 26;18(10):2733-2739. doi: 10.22034/APJCP.2017.18.10.2733.

Abstract

Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe trends of colorectal cancer incidence during the period 1994-2009 and to generate projections until 2024. Methods: The North-Tunisia Cancer Registry (NTCR) was the source of data for patients with CRC. This registry lists, since 1994, cases of malignant tumors in people living in North Tunisia, including the District of Tunis, the north east and the north west. Cases were classified using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Data were analyzed using R software and Joinpoint one was employed to analyse trends. Projections were performed using the Age Period Cohort based on poisson regression. Results: During the period 1994 to 2009, 6,909 new cases of CRC were registered in Northern Tunisia. The age standardized incidence rate (ASR) increased significantly from 6.4/100,000 in 1994 to 12.4/100,000 in 2009. Trends in CRC incidence was significantly rising with an annual percentage change (APC) of + 3,9% [2.8% -5.1%]. Without effective interventions, the predicted CRC ASR would be 39.3/100,000 [CI 95%: 32,9/100,000 - 48,8/100,000] in 2024. Conclusion: The incidence of colorectal cancer is clearly increasing in Tunisia. Strengthening of screening and primary prevention measures is to be recommended.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在描述1994 - 2009年期间结直肠癌的发病趋势,并预测至2024年的发病情况。方法:北突尼斯癌症登记处(NTCR)是结直肠癌患者数据的来源。该登记处自1994年起记录居住在突尼斯北部(包括突尼斯市、东北部和西北部)人群中的恶性肿瘤病例。病例采用国际肿瘤疾病分类进行分类。使用R软件进行数据分析,并采用Joinpoint one分析趋势。基于泊松回归,采用年龄时期队列法进行预测。结果:1994年至2009年期间,突尼斯北部共登记了6909例新发结直肠癌病例。年龄标准化发病率(ASR)从1994年的6.4/10万显著增至2009年的12.4/10万。结直肠癌发病率呈显著上升趋势,年变化百分比(APC)为 + 3.9% [2.8% - 5.1%]。若不采取有效干预措施,预计2024年结直肠癌的ASR将为39.3/10万 [95%置信区间:32.9/10万 - 48.8/10万]。结论:突尼斯结直肠癌的发病率明显上升。建议加强筛查和一级预防措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8429/5747397/a98edc269a60/APJCP-18-2733-g001.jpg

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