Department of Orthopedics, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
Cancer Control. 2024 Jan-Dec;31:10732748241227340. doi: 10.1177/10732748241227340.
The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study.
The incidences' relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used.
In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6-4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of -.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM.
There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.
本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担研究中与恶性皮肤黑色素瘤（MSM）相关的数据，评估 1990 年至 2019 年期间 MSM 的全球负担。
研究分析了发病率与社会人口指数（SDI）和人类发展指数（HDI）的关系。为了确定发病率趋势的显著变化，采用了 joinpoint 回归模型。为了展示 MSM 死亡率趋势，采用了年龄-时期-队列框架。为了预测新发病例和 MSM 发病率的年龄标准化发病率（ASR）到 2034 年，采用了 Nordpred 方法。
2019 年，MSM 的每 100,000 人发病率为 3.6（95%置信区间，2.6-4.2）。1990 年至 2019 年间，大多数国家的 MSM 患病率都有所增加（平均年百分比变化>0）。HDI 和年百分比变化（APC）（ρ=0.63，<0.001）以及 SDI 和 ASR 呈正相关。全球 MSM 死亡率总体呈下降趋势，APC 为-0.61%。同样，年龄<77.5 岁人群的死亡率也有所下降。预测分析显示 ASR 发病率呈下降趋势，MSM 人数不断增加。
各地区和国家之间的 ASR 发病率存在显著差异。尽管 ASR 发病率和死亡率有所下降，但 MSM 仍然是全球癌症死亡和发病的主要原因之一。MSM 需要在高风险地区采取更多的初级预防措施和筛查。
