估算印度五岁以下儿童流感负担：一项荟萃分析。
Estimation of Burden of Influenza among under-Five Children in India: A Meta-Analysis.
机构信息
Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, AIIMS Campus, Ansari Nagar East, New Delhi, India.
Department of Biostatistics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, AIIMS Campus, Ansari Nagar East, New Delhi, India.
出版信息
J Trop Pediatr. 2018 Oct 1;64(5):441-453. doi: 10.1093/tropej/fmx087.
BACKGROUND
We estimated the burden of influenza-related acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) among under-fives in India through meta-analysis.
METHODOLOGY
We estimated pooled incidence and proportional positivity of laboratory-diagnosed influenza among under-fives using data from observational studies published from 1 January 1961 to 31 December 2016. Death due to influenza was estimated using a multiplier model.
RESULTS
Influenza-associated ARI incidence was estimated as 132 per 1000 child-years (115-149). The patients positive for influenza among ARI in outpatients and inpatients were estimated to be 11.2% (8.8-13.6) and 7.1% (5.5-8.8), respectively. We estimated total influenza cases during 2016 as 16 009 207 (13 942 916-18 082 769) in India. Influenza accounted for 10 913 476 (9 504 666-12 362 310) outpatient visits and 109 431 (83 882-134 980) hospitalizations. A total of 27 825 (21 382-34 408) influenza-associated under-five deaths were estimated in India in 2016.
CONCLUSION
Influenza imposes a substantial burden among under-fives in India. Public health approach for its prevention and control needs to be explored.
背景
我们通过荟萃分析估计了印度五岁以下儿童与流感相关的急性呼吸道感染（ARI）负担。
方法
我们使用了 1961 年 1 月 1 日至 2016 年 12 月 31 日期间发表的观察性研究的数据，估算了五岁以下儿童中实验室确诊流感的合并发病率和阳性比例。利用乘数模型估计了流感相关死亡。
结果
流感相关 ARI 的发病率估计为每 1000 个儿童年 132 例（115-149）。门诊和住院患者中流感阳性的 ARI 患者估计分别为 11.2%（8.8-13.6）和 7.1%（5.5-8.8）。我们估计 2016 年印度流感病例总数为 16009207 例（13942916-18082769）。流感导致了 10913476 例（9504666-12362310）门诊就诊和 109431 例（83882-134980）住院治疗。2016 年印度估计有 27825 例（21382-34408）与流感相关的五岁以下儿童死亡。
结论
流感在印度五岁以下儿童中造成了巨大负担。需要探索预防和控制流感的公共卫生措施。
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