日本钝性创伤受害者的生存预测逻辑回归模型。
A survival prediction logistic regression models for blunt trauma victims in Japan.
作者信息
Suzuki Takaaki, Kimura Akio, Sasaki Ryo, Uemura Tatsuki
机构信息
Department of Emergency Medicine & Critical Care Center Hospital of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine Tokyo Japan.
出版信息
Acute Med Surg. 2016 Jul 19;4(1):52-56. doi: 10.1002/ams2.228. eCollection 2017 Jan.
AIM
This research aimed to propose a logistic regression model for Japanese blunt trauma victims.
METHODS
We tested whether the logistic regression model previously created from data registered in the Japan Trauma Data Bank between 2005 and 2008 is still valid for the data from the same data bank between 2009 and 2013. Additionally, we analyzed whether the model would be highly accurate even when its coefficients were rounded off to two decimal places.
RESULTS
The model was proved to be highly accurate (94.56%) in the recent data (2009-2013). We also showed that the model remains valid without respiratory rate data and the simplified model would maintain high accuracy.
CONCLUSION
We propose the equation of survival prediction of blunt trauma victims in Japan to be Ps = 1/(1+e), where b = -0.76 + 1.03 × Revised Trauma Score - 0.07 × Injury Severity Score - 0.04 × age.
目的
本研究旨在为日本钝性创伤受害者提出一个逻辑回归模型。
方法
我们测试了先前根据2005年至2008年日本创伤数据库中登记的数据创建的逻辑回归模型，对于2009年至2013年同一数据库中的数据是否仍然有效。此外，我们分析了即使模型系数四舍五入到小数点后两位，该模型是否仍具有高度准确性。
结果
该模型在近期数据（2009 - 2013年）中被证明具有高度准确性（94.56%）。我们还表明，该模型在没有呼吸频率数据的情况下仍然有效，并且简化模型将保持高准确性。
结论
我们提出日本钝性创伤受害者生存预测方程为Ps = 1/(1+e)，其中b = -0.76 + 1.03×修订创伤评分 - 0.07×损伤严重度评分 - 0.04×年龄。
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