Timonin Sergey, Danilova Inna, Andreev Evgeny, Shkolnikov Vladimir M
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya St. 20, Moscow, Russia 101000.
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Strasse 1, 18057 Rostock, Germany.
Eur J Popul. 2017;33(5):733-763. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9451-3. Epub 2017 Nov 22.
After several decades of negative trends and short-term fluctuations, life expectancy has been increasing in Russia since 2004. Between 2003 and 2014, the length of life rose by 6.6 years among males and by 4.6 years among females. While positive trends in life expectancy are observed in all regions of Russia, these trends are unfolding differently in different regions. First, regions entered the phase of life expectancy growth at different points in time. Second, the age- and cause-specific components of the gains in life expectancy and the number of years added vary noticeably. In this paper, we apply decomposition techniques-specifically, the stepwise replacement algorithm-to examine the age- and cause-specific components of the changes in inter-regional disparities during the current period of health improvement. The absolute inter-regional disparities in length of life, measured by the population-weighted standard deviation, decreased slightly between 2003 and 2014, from 3.3 to 3.2 years for males, and from 2.0 to 1.8 years for females. The decomposition of these small changes by ages and causes of death shows that these shifts were the result of diverse effects of mortality convergence at young and middle ages, and of mortality divergence at older ages. With respect to causes of death, the convergence is mainly attributable to external causes, while the inter-regional divergence of trends is largely determined by cardiovascular diseases. The two major cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, are currently pioneering mortality improvements in Russia and are making the largest contributions to the inter-regional divergence.
在经历了几十年的负面趋势和短期波动之后，俄罗斯的预期寿命自2004年以来一直在增加。2003年至2014年期间，男性的预期寿命增加了6.6岁，女性增加了4.6岁。虽然俄罗斯所有地区的预期寿命都呈现出积极趋势，但这些趋势在不同地区的发展情况有所不同。首先，各地区在不同时间点进入预期寿命增长阶段。其次，预期寿命增长的年龄和死因特定组成部分以及增加的年数差异显著。在本文中，我们应用分解技术——具体来说，逐步替代算法——来研究当前健康改善时期区域间差距变化的年龄和死因特定组成部分。以人口加权标准差衡量的预期寿命的绝对区域间差距在2003年至2014年间略有下降，男性从3.3岁降至3.2岁，女性从2.0岁降至1.8岁。按年龄和死因对这些微小变化进行分解表明，这些变化是青年和中年死亡率趋同以及老年死亡率分化的不同影响的结果。就死因而言，趋同主要归因于外部原因，而趋势的区域间分化在很大程度上由心血管疾病决定。俄罗斯的两个主要城市，莫斯科和圣彼得堡，目前在死亡率改善方面处于领先地位，并对区域间分化做出了最大贡献。
